The Ironic Failure Behind the EU’s Zero-Carbon Strategy

Here’s the tragicomic part: Yes, global warming is real, and yes, we must reduce carbon emissions. Producing more sustainable energy? Absolutely right. Transitioning to “zero carbon” in vehicles? Correct again. However, the EU made two major miscalculations and thought they were being clever:

1. They failed to foresee the high financial cost of transitioning to a sustainable economy and underestimated the long-term return on such projects.

2. They didn’t properly evaluate whether they had the human capital, mineral resources, technical knowledge, and regulatory readiness to shift to a new ecological model. (The latest Draghi Report laid out the facts clearly.)

On April 19, 2023, the EU Commission passed a law to ban the production of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035. In essence, they proposed replacing 130 years of technology in just 12 years. Anyone who questioned this pace and approach was labeled a “dinosaur.” But the underlying idea was: “We’ve lost our competitiveness in this technology. If we shift to the new one, we can bring manufacturing back to our countries.” Yet it backfired.

The pressure didn’t stop there. Post-2015 environmental and safety standards hit the automotive sector even harder. As Renault Group’s CEO recently noted in the press, vehicle costs rose by nearly 40%, and 92.5% of that came from regulation.

Meanwhile, radical leftist environmentalists took over major cities (like Paris), pushing the hype of “car-free cities.” Those who pointed out that city infrastructure was unfit for such change were also mocked as “dinosaurs.” Driving into cities became a nightmare.

As a result, car sales in the EU dropped from 13.7 million in 2015 to 10.6 million in 2024 — a 22.6% decline and a major blow to the automotive industry.

The EU failed to understand that change meant more than just making electric cars. Battery production is an entire ecosystem — starting from mining, through refining, to final use. Overregulation in related fields has stifled industry growth.

Let’s break it down:

• Human capital and research: EU fell behind compared to China.

• Rare earth mining: Nearly impossible in Europe due to strict environmental laws.

• Autonomous and connected vehicles: Privacy regulations and poor immigration policies made it hard to attract the talent needed.

In short, European firms invested heavily in this transition. But as sales fell and amortization pressures increased, they began to struggle. Add China’s growing global competitiveness, and by 2023, the EU auto industry entered autumn — and now, in 2024, it’s entering winter.

The hunter became the hunted. As part of the EU automotive ecosystem, Turkey shares the same fate.